Bookmakers get it wrong every day. We show which Lithuanian bookmaker has overpriced a line — and by how much.
You bet on the same things you do now — just where they pay more for it. One bet can lose, but over hundreds of bets the difference stays with you.
Every few minutes we compare Lithuanian bookmaker odds with Pinnacle and flag where you're paid more than it's worth — before the odds get fixed, which is often a matter of minutes.
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nowPUBLIC RESULTS
Public results: every signal, losers included
Every signal the system flagged as a value bet from Oct 2, 2026 to Oct 27, 2026, logged automatically and settled on official results. Only odds from 2.10 to 3.50 count — nothing else is filtered out or deleted.
- bets recorded and settled
- 15,114
- Not our money or anyone's — every bet the system flagged, losers included.
- of them lost
- 59%
- At odds from 2.10, losing more often than winning is normal.
- if you had staked €10 on each
- +€15
- €151,140 staked in total. Before the subscription, and no guarantee for the future.
- odds tracked right now
- 44,833
- Lithuanian bookmakers
- 8
- last checked
- now
For advanced readers: ROI, CLV and the closing line
- ROI at a flat stake
- 0.0%
- Expected from EV: +6.1%
- avg. CLV (vs Pinnacle closing odds)
- +0.3%
- how much better our odds were on average than Pinnacle's closing odds
- of signals beat the closing odds
- 56%
- the market's closing odds are the strictest judge: beating them means being right, even when the bet lost
Right now the actual ROI (0.0%) is below the luck band (+4.1%…+8.1%): the board's EV was overstated in this period, not just unlucky. Look at CLV and beating the closing line.
Why 0.0% and not +6.1%? EV is how much a bet looked worth the minute we flagged it. The actual result shows the flagged edge is smaller on average: odds move and part of the value disappears before kick-off. So treat the EV on the board as an upper bound, and CLV and beating the closing odds as the real measure: they show whether the odds were wrong, regardless of whether the bet won.
Variance is large: even with a real edge, losing weeks are normal. Past results do not guarantee future profit.
Lithuania only
In Lithuania, limiting a winner is the regulator's business, not the bookmaker's mood
In many countries bookmakers cut back winning players. In Lithuania a licensed bookmaker has to justify a limit. The Gaming Control Authority (LPT) has fined bookmakers for limiting bets without an objective reason, and the courts upheld those fines. That doesn't mean you will never be limited — but you have somewhere to turn.
Been limited? You can complain to the LPT. kefas keeps a dated record of every bet you placed and the price shown at the time — useful for a complaint.
How to file →Sources: LPT's €15,000 fine on Olympic Casino Group Baltija, upheld by the Vilnius Regional Administrative Court on 2023-02-14 (LRT); Supreme Administrative Court case No. eA-284-662/2025 of 2025-04-16 (Amber Gaming, €6,000). Not legal advice.
Not a tipster — a board and numbers
- A public log of results, losses included
- Monthly billing, cancel anytime — no package paid in advance
- The whole board and the maths — you decide, not a tipster
- In Lithuania the LPT has fined bookmakers for limiting bets without a reason, and the courts upheld the fines
Same bet — different odds
Sample: upcoming bets currently priced by at least two bookmakers (6). Odds change every few minutes.
Are the best odds already a value bet? Not always — that depends on the fair odds. Pro shows them, the edge and the stake. Compare plans
How we find a value bet
Start from the most accurate odds
We remove the bookmaker's margin
Find who pays more
Worked example
Pinnacle 1.95 / 1.95 → true probability 50 % → fair odds 2.00
A Lithuanian bookmaker offers 2.10 on the same outcome → your edge is 5 %. That is a value bet.
One such bet wins about every other time — it can lose too. But over 1,000 such bets at €10 each you can expect to end up roughly €500 ahead. It is the same principle a casino lives on — only the edge is on your side.
What it takes from you
A bankroll from €200–300
Separate money for betting that you can live without. Each stake is a small share of it.
About a minute per bet
Pick a bet on the board, the link takes you to the bookmaker, you bet from your own account. 10 bets take about 10 minutes.
You can start with 5 bets a day
Results just swing more. We recommend 30–50 a day — the edge shows up faster that way, but it isn't a requirement.
Free — the odds. Pro — the value bets.
Free: main-market odds (match result, handicap, totals for the full match), the best price and small edges up to +2 % (about €2 per €100 staked on average). Pro: every edge, including the biggest ones, and how much to stake. Cancel anytime. When does Pro pay for itself? Run the numbers →
Free
€0
- All matches; main markets only: match result, handicap and totals (full match) (Included)
- Best odds across all Lithuanian bookmakers (Included)
- Direct links to the bookmaker (Included)
- Edge up to +2 % — about €2 per €100 staked on average (Included)
- Pinnacle odds and fair odds (Not included)
- Edges above +2 % and the suggested stake (Not included)
- Alerts on your own filter (Not included)
Pro
EVERYTHING LIVERecommended€100/ month
- Everything in the Free plan (Included)
- Pinnacle odds, fair odds and limits (Included)
- EV % and stake for every line (Included)
- Alerts in the app and on Telegram for your filter (Included)
- Bet tracker: actual vs EV-expected (Included)
- Arbitrage (surebet) flags (Included)
7 days free, card required. After the trial, the subscription renews automatically at €100 / month — cancel before then and you pay nothing.
Full refund within 14 days of your first payment, no reason needed. Refund policy
Work out when Pro pays off
An expectation, not a guarantee — variance runs both ways.
The more bets, the less the result swings.
Edge assumption
Pays off once you stake at least €2,000 a month
or 400 bets at €5.00 each
With these assumptions Pro doesn't pay off. Stay on the free board or grow the bankroll or volume — better to say so now than a month from now.
Assumptions: stake is ⅓ Kelly at odds 2.00 (bankroll share = edge ÷ 3); a month is 30 days; the bankroll doesn't grow (no compounding). You choose the edge: our public result or your own assumption.
Expect losing weeks. At a 5.0% edge, a drawdown the size of 20 bets (about €100) within a month is routine, not a sign something broke. That is why the stake is a share of the bankroll, not a fixed number.
Common questions
Will I actually make money?
Not necessarily, and nobody can promise that. A value bet has positive expected value, but any single bet can lose and losing weeks are normal. The edge only shows over many bets. Only bet what you can afford to lose. Our numbers update publicly every day and they are modest — a few percent of turnover. If someone promises 20 % a month, ask where you can see their losing bets.
Why pay when the odds are visible for free?
The best odds don't yet mean a bet is worth taking. Pro shows the fair odds based on Pinnacle, the edge in percent and the suggested stake for every line. You also get alerts for your filter and bet tracking. Free shows main markets only (match result, handicap and totals for the full match); Pro shows them all.
How is this different from paid tips and tipsters?
A tipster sends a few hand-picked bets and decides which results to show you. kefas shows the whole board and the maths — you see why a bet is worth it and decide yourself. Every signal the system flags is logged and settled in public, even when it loses. Billing is monthly and cancellable anytime — no "packages" months in advance. There is no guaranteed profit in betting — anyone promising it is selling marketing, not maths.
How many bets a day does it take?
You can start with 5 a day — the result just swings more. Each bet's edge is small, so volume is what counts: the more bets, the sooner the edge shows. If you have the time, we recommend 30–50 a day.
How big a bankroll do I need?
You can start with a separate bankroll of €200–300 — money you can do without. Each stake is a small share of it, so with a small bankroll the bets are small while the subscription is fixed. The calculator above, with our actual ROI, shows from which bankroll and number of bets Pro pays off; if yours is smaller, stay on the free board and bet at the best odds. Never bet money you cannot afford to lose.
How much time does it take per day?
About a minute per bet: you pick it on the board and the link takes you straight to the bookmaker. 10 bets take about 10 minutes a day, in chunks, whenever an alert arrives. Short on time? Bet less often — just know that with less volume the result swings more.
Will my account get limited?
It can happen. Bookmakers limit winning accounts: they cut your maximum stake or stop you betting on some markets. Over time some bookmakers become less useful to you, so it pays to hold accounts with several. In Lithuania a limit needs an objective reason, and the LPT has fined bookmakers for unjustified limits, so you can file a complaint. Nobody can guarantee you won't be limited.
Is this legal?
Yes. You place every bet yourself, in your own account at licensed Lithuanian bookmakers — kefas only compares public odds and does the maths. Betting in Lithuania is allowed from 21.
Do I need to sign up?
Not for the free board. A free account (Google, no card) lets you pick your bookmakers, set a bankroll and track bets. Pro payments are handled by Stripe: we never see or store card details.
How does the free Pro trial work?
New subscribers get the first 7 days free. A card is required; cancel before the trial ends and nothing is charged. After that you can cancel anytime — Pro runs until the end of the paid period, and we refund the first payment in full within 14 days, no questions asked.
How do I cancel Pro?
On the Plans page, click "Manage subscription" — Stripe opens and you cancel with one button, no emails, no questions. Pro keeps working until the end of the paid period.
Is kefas a bookmaker?
No. kefas takes no bets and holds none of your money: we show odds and calculations, and you bet yourself on the bookmaker's site. Betting in Lithuania is allowed from the age of 21.
See where Lithuanian bookmakers are overpaying today
A free account in one click with Google, no card needed. Odds update every few minutes.
See the board without an account
Cancel before day 7 and you pay nothing. Forgot? We refund the full amount within 14 days of the first payment.